Seasonal Trends in Bitcoin: What History Shows

Bitcoin’s price movements follow seasonal and cyclical patterns that traders can use to make informed decisions. Here’s what the data shows:

• Best Months for Gains: Historically, February and October are Bitcoin’s strongest months, with average returns of 13.62% and 18.5%, respectively.

• Weak Months: August and September often underperform, with negative returns 70% of the time for August and an average loss of -1.83% in September.

• Sell in May: The period from May 21 to September 25 tends to see weaker performance, with a historical annualized decline of -17.61%.

• Year-End Rally: October through December is Bitcoin’s best-performing period, with Q4 delivering an average return of 85.4%.

• Halving Cycles: Bitcoin’s price typically surges 12–18 months after a halving, but the 2024 halving broke this trend, showing a 7% decline after 150 days.

Quick Overview of Key Patterns

These insights help traders time their entries and exits, but remember: seasonal trends aren’t guarantees. Always combine them with technical and fundamental analysis.

Bitcoin Price Patterns During Halving Cycles

Bitcoin Halving Events Explained

Bitcoin halving events are key milestones in the cryptocurrency market. These events happen every 1,388 days (approximately 3 years and 9 months), cutting the block reward for miners in half. This mechanism, embedded in Bitcoin's code, is designed to limit inflation and ensure Bitcoin remains a deflationary asset. When Bitcoin first launched, miners earned 50 BTC per block. The first halving in November 2012 reduced this reward to 25 BTC, followed by further reductions to 12.5 BTC in July 2016, 6.25 BTC in May 2020, and most recently to 3.125 BTC after the April 2024 halving. By reducing the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation, halvings create scarcity, which can push prices higher - provided demand remains steady.

Price Performance After Each Halving

Historically, Bitcoin's most dramatic price increases have occurred in the 12–18 months following a halving.

• 2012 Halving: Bitcoin's price jumped from $10.59 to $126.24 within 180 days - a staggering 1,092% increase. Over the full cycle, the price skyrocketed by 11,644%.

• 2016 Halving: The pattern repeated, with Bitcoin climbing to over $1,002.92 within 180 days, setting the stage for the 2017 bull run. This cycle delivered a 2,503% gain, with 91.5% of the returns occurring after the halving.

• 2020 Halving: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin still managed to set new records, reaching $14,849.09 within 180 days and later peaking above $67,000 by November 2021. This cycle resulted in a 1,671.43% increase.

• 2024 Halving: This time, the market took an unexpected turn. Bitcoin's price on halving day was $64,994.44 but dropped to $60,252.95 after 150 days - a 7% decline. This marked the first instance of an immediate post-halving price drop, likely influenced by factors like regulatory changes and broader economic conditions.

Table: Halving Dates and Price Returns

While Bitcoin's price has typically surged after halvings, the size of these gains has varied. Earlier halvings delivered massive percentage increases, but recent events have shown more moderate returns - likely reflecting Bitcoin's growing market maturity and larger capitalization. Traders often plan their strategies around these cycles, as historical data shows market peaks tend to occur roughly 480 days (1 year and 4 months) after each halving. These halving-driven trends, combined with broader seasonal patterns, provide valuable insights for timing trades effectively.

Monthly and Seasonal Price Patterns

Monthly Returns: 2013–2025 Data

When analyzing Bitcoin's performance from 2013 to 2025, November stands out as the top-performing month with an impressive average return of 43.74%. February follows with an average return of 13.62%, boasting the highest win probability since 2014. Notably, during post-halving periods, February's returns average 40.74%.

October also shows strong results, delivering an average gain of 24% between 2015 and 2023. Together with February and April, these months exhibit the lowest frequency of declines, making them relatively dependable for gains.

On the flip side, September and January present challenges. September averages a return of –1.83% (dropping to –4.8% from 2015 to 2023), while January averages –6.2%. May is another tricky month for Bitcoin. For instance, in May 2021, Bitcoin tumbled by 35%, followed by another 15% drop in May 2022. This aligns with the well-known market adage, "Sell in May and Walk Away."

"Historically, the next couple of months have been weak for financial markets, with many investors abiding by the Sell in May and Walk Away adage."
– Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE

These monthly performance insights set the stage for understanding Bitcoin's broader seasonal trends.

Summer vs. Winter Performance

Expanding on monthly data, seasonal patterns offer more context for Bitcoin's behavior. Winter months - December, January, and February - are known for their volatility and mixed results. While February often shines, January tends to underperform, and December typically wraps up the year on a high note, with an average gain of 20% between 2015 and 2023.

Summer months, however, paint a more complicated picture. June has historically delivered strong results, with median gains approaching 20%. In contrast, August frequently experiences declines and heightened risk, and September often ends summer with negative median returns.

Looking at quarterly trends, the second quarter (April–June) shows potential, with average returns of 26% over the past 12 years. However, the 7.5% median return highlights the volatility within this period. The third quarter (July–September) is less favorable, offering average returns of just 6% and slightly negative median returns. In contrast, the fourth quarter (October–December) emerges as Bitcoin's strongest period, with an average return of 85.4% and a median return of 52.3%.

"Q4 marks Bitcoin's strongest seasonal period, with an average return of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, whereas Q3 tends to deliver more muted or negative outcomes."
– Vugar Usi Zade, COO at crypto exchange Bitget

Table: Monthly Return Averages

These patterns offer traders a roadmap for timing their moves. While the October–December period often brings opportunities for gains, months like August and September demand extra caution. By combining these seasonal trends with other analytical tools, traders can make more informed decisions throughout the year.

Daily and Hourly Trading Patterns

Weekday vs Weekend Price Movement

Bitcoin's trading habits show clear differences between weekdays and weekends, creating patterns that traders can use to their advantage. Sarah Johnson of BlockMetrics highlights this trend:

"Weekday trading volumes are typically 30-40% higher than weekend volumes across major exchanges."

Weekend trading activity has steadily declined over the years. In 2018, weekends accounted for 24% of all BTC trades. By 2023, this dropped to 17%, and between January 1 and February 20, 2024, it fell further to just 13%.

Lower weekend trading volumes often lead to more volatile price movements. With fewer participants in the market, individual trades can have a stronger impact on prices. However, a 2022–2024 analysis revealed that average price changes on weekends weren’t significantly different from weekday fluctuations.

The debate over the best trading days remains unresolved. Some studies link Mondays to higher returns and increased volatility, while others suggest weekends may carry less risk. Interestingly, data from 2025 points to Tuesdays as the most volatile day of the week.

For traders, weekends might appeal to short-term strategies that benefit from volatility, while weekdays offer the liquidity and stability that long-term investors prefer. Given the reduced liquidity and potential for sudden price swings on weekends, a more cautious approach is advisable during these periods.

These daily trends lay the groundwork for understanding Bitcoin's hourly trading rhythms.

Hourly Price Patterns

Zooming in further, Bitcoin's hourly trading patterns reveal even more precision for timing trades. Much like traditional financial markets, Bitcoin experiences higher trading volume and volatility during hours aligned with U.S. and European stock market sessions. Historical data from 2015–2018 shows that trading activity typically follows a reverse V-pattern: it builds in the morning, peaks around midday, and tapers off by evening.

The busiest trading times align with major financial hubs. Global trading volume tends to peak between 2:30–4:30 PM UTC, during the overlap of the European afternoon and U.S. morning sessions. Conversely, activity hits its lowest points between 02:00–06:00 and 21:00–23:00 UTC.

Bitcoin network transactions also peak at 14:00 GMT, a time closely tied to the New York Stock Exchange's hours. Since 2013, these hours have consistently driven on-chain activity. The U.S. plays a significant role here, with trading during its hours often delivering higher returns and showing greater price variability.

Chart: 24-Hour Volatility Map

Here’s a breakdown of Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading cycle:

This volatility map highlights Bitcoin's trading rhythm, with the 14:00 GMT peak offering ideal conditions for traders seeking high liquidity and significant price action. On the other hand, low-activity periods, like early UTC mornings, require caution due to thinner liquidity and the potential for sudden price swings.

Recognizing these hourly patterns can help traders optimize their market entries and exits. Since volume spikes often signal upcoming price movements, keeping a close eye on activity during peak trading windows is essential. Despite being a 24/7 market, Bitcoin's price behavior remains influenced by traditional market cycles, complementing its broader seasonal and halving trends. This provides traders with valuable insights for refining their strategies.

Cutting-Edge Seasonality Insights & Bitcoin 2024 Halving Impact | The Final Bar (11.17.23)

Using Trading Tools with Seasonal Data

Blending seasonal trends with technical tools can fine-tune your market timing. Let’s dive into how historical price levels can reinforce these seasonal insights.

Historical Levels for Trade Confirmation

The PulseWave Trading Indicator uses historical price levels to identify trade entries and confirm market bias, making it a valuable tool for seasonal strategies. Bitcoin, for example, often exhibits seasonal patterns that align with key technical levels, creating opportunities for traders to capitalize on these overlaps.

Take February - historically Bitcoin’s strongest month. With PulseWave, traders can zero in on price zones where seasonal momentum is likely to pick up. The indicator’s ability to confirm bias helps differentiate between genuine seasonal breakouts and misleading signals that could trap traders.

During Bitcoin’s bullish stretch from September to May, combining historical price levels with PulseWave signals can pinpoint critical entry points. For instance, the indicator may highlight former resistance levels that have turned into support, offering clear zones to watch. Conversely, in the April-to-June bearish phase, PulseWave can identify historical support levels that might break down, presenting potential short-selling opportunities.

The real strength here is the combination of seasonal probabilities with technical validation. Instead of acting solely on calendar-based patterns, traders can wait for PulseWave to confirm that historical levels align with seasonal expectations, reducing the likelihood of entering trades too early.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Seasonal Trades

Adding multi-timeframe analysis to historical level evaluation sharpens trade timing even further. PulseWave’s multi-timeframe alignment feature allows traders to observe seasonal trends across daily, weekly, and monthly charts, providing a comprehensive view of market behavior.

This approach helps optimize holding periods and manage risk. For example, a trade might use a tighter stop-loss with a more aggressive entry while aiming for a broader target based on higher timeframe trends. By analyzing multiple timeframes, traders can validate their hypotheses and refine both entry and exit strategies.

Consider October, which typically kicks off Bitcoin’s year-end rally. Traders might use the monthly chart to confirm the overall trend, the weekly chart to identify intermediate entry points, and the daily chart to fine-tune timing. A practical method is to select a primary timeframe based on the intended holding period, then review one timeframe above and below. For instance, if planning a trade over several weeks, the weekly chart could serve as the primary reference, with the monthly chart for trend context and the daily chart for precise entries. Interestingly, Friday often emerges as the most bullish day of the week, making it an ideal time to initiate long positions when the broader trend supports the move.

Example: Combining Halving Data with PulseWave

Bitcoin halving events are well-known for their impact on seasonal patterns. When paired with PulseWave, these events become even more actionable by pinpointing breakout zones around key resistance levels.

Take the 2016 halving as an example. Before the event, Bitcoin traded around $665, with a clear resistance level at $700. Traders using a breakout strategy could rely on PulseWave to highlight this $700 zone as historically significant. When Bitcoin decisively broke above $700, PulseWave confirmed the bullish breakout with clear entry signals, while the halving data provided the fundamental backdrop.

Adding to this, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics enhance these seasonal trades. Around 180,000 BTC are being moved into long-term storage each quarter - double the amount of new Bitcoin being mined. This supply constraint, combined with PulseWave’s technical confirmation, creates high-probability trade setups during halving events.

While halving data indicates when momentum might increase, PulseWave pinpoints where that momentum is likely to start. Traders can focus on key resistance or support levels and act when the price breaks out of these zones, turning seasonal tendencies into precise trading opportunities.

Short-term traders can also leverage the volatility surrounding halving events. By combining on-chain analytics with PulseWave’s entry and exit signals, they can identify optimal trade points with greater confidence. This pairing of seasonal insights with technical precision transforms broad market timing into actionable strategies. Instead of just knowing that halving events often push prices higher, traders gain clarity on when and where to enter these moves effectively.

Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Seasonal Trends

Bitcoin's historical performance reveals recurring patterns that traders can leverage by combining calendar-based insights with technical analysis. Over the years, certain months have consistently stood out as strong opportunities for bullish or bearish strategies.

February and October shine as Bitcoin's most reliable months for bullish trades. February, in particular, has historically delivered the strongest returns, reflecting market dynamics driven by liquidity flows and investor behavior. October mirrors this strength, achieving a 100% success rate for long trades over three- and five-year periods.

In contrast, August has consistently been a bearish month. Short trades in August have a 100% success rate over three years and an 80% success rate over five- and ten-year periods. This makes August a prime candidate for contrarian strategies, especially for traders looking to capitalize on seasonal weaknesses.

Another key trend is the year-end rally, spanning October through December. October alone boasts an average return of +18.5%, with 81% of those months ending positively. This trend underscores the importance of positioning ahead of this period, but timing remains critical to maximize gains.

Beyond monthly patterns, daily and hourly trends add another layer of precision. For instance, Friday emerges as the most bullish day of the week, with long trades showing higher success rates across multiple timeframes. Intraday, the window between 21:00 and 23:00 UTC delivers the strongest returns, offering traders a clear opportunity to optimize their entries.

To turn these seasonal and daily insights into actionable strategies, traders can combine them with technical indicators like the PulseWave Trading Indicator. This approach ensures that trades are not solely based on calendar patterns but also supported by technical confirmations at key price levels. This combination significantly improves risk-reward ratios and aligns with broader discussions on integrating historical trends with technical tools.

Multi-timeframe analysis enhances these strategies further. Aligning monthly seasonal trends with weekly setups and daily entry signals allows traders to filter out false breakouts and focus on genuine opportunities. This layered approach ensures both market timing and technical precision.

However, even with strong seasonal patterns, risk management and technical validation remain crucial. For example, while February is historically bullish, entering a trade without confirmation could result in poorly timed positions. Similarly, August's bearish tendencies don't guarantee success for every short trade; traders must still rely on technical signals for optimal entry and exit points.

FAQs

How do Bitcoin's seasonal trends compare to those of traditional markets?

Bitcoin often displays distinct seasonal patterns, with notable price surges during specific months, especially in the fourth quarter. Historically, November and December have stood out for stronger performance, a trend some link to increased trading activity and a sense of market optimism around the holiday season.

Similarly, traditional financial markets show seasonal behaviors, such as the "January effect", where stock prices typically rise following the holidays. However, these patterns in traditional markets are generally more stable and predictable. In contrast, Bitcoin's seasonal trends are often more dramatic, reflecting its highly dynamic and unpredictable nature.

Why did Bitcoin's price drop unexpectedly after the 2024 halving?

The drop in Bitcoin's price following the 2024 halving caught many by surprise, especially since halvings usually reduce supply and often spark price increases. This time, however, the broader economic landscape played a major role in dampening the usual bullish momentum. Factors like rising interest rates, uncertainty around regulations, and an overall market slump weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

On top of that, a number of investors who had built up their Bitcoin holdings before the halving chose to cash out, creating additional selling pressure right after the event. Together, these factors shifted the balance, with external economic conditions and market behavior overshadowing the typical post-halving price rally.

How can traders use Bitcoin's seasonal trends and technical analysis to make smarter trading decisions?

Traders can tap into Bitcoin's seasonal trends alongside technical analysis to fine-tune their strategies and make smarter decisions. Historical data shows repeating patterns, like increased volatility during specific months, which can help traders anticipate potential market shifts.

By merging these seasonal patterns with technical tools - such as moving averages, momentum indicators, or the PulseWave Trading Indicator - traders can pinpoint ideal entry and exit points. For instance, focusing on historically strong months and using technical confirmations can enhance timing and minimize risks. This method equips traders to navigate market swings with greater confidence and precision.

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